We called the top in Apple when it broke below its 50 DMA line in October 2012.
Right now Apple is above its 50 DMA line and is tracing out a potential inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern.
Chart Of The Day: Apple Tracing Out A Potential Inverse Head & Shoulders Bottom Pattern
Written By: Garyk
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May•
20•13
Good & Bad For The Week
Written By: Garyk
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May•
17•13
Good:
1. There was little change in the rhetoric from the G7 about Japan’s aggressive easing policies Read here
2. Retail Sales beat estimates Read here
3. Small businesses confidence rose to a 6-month high, helped by a stronger economy. Read here
4. Home builder Confidence topped estimates and rose 3 points to 44 in May. Read here
5. US Consumer Confidence Jumps to a 6-Year High In May. Came in at 83.7 vs est of 78. Read here
6. Leading Indicators rose 0.6% which was the highest level in nearly 5 years and topped the Street’s estimate for a gain of 0.2%. Read here
Bad:
1. German investor confidence rose less than expected in May Read here
2. Eurozone economy shrank in Q1 marking the longest recession ever. The EZ economy fell by -0.2% in Q1 which is the 6th consecutive quarter in a recession and the longest since records began in 1995. Read here
3. The producer price index (PPI) fell -0.7% in April, posting the largest drop in three years which sparked deflation, not inflation, woes Read here
4. The New York Federal Reserve’s “Empire State” general business conditions index slid to -1.43 in May from 3.05 in April. Read here
5. Industrial Production fell -0.5% in April, missing expectations for a dip of -0.2%. Read here
6. Weekly jobless claims rose by 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 360,000, according to the Labor Department, climbing at the fastest pace in six months. Read here
7. Housing starts plunged -16.5% in April to a 853,000-unit annual rate, well below expectations for a 945,000-unit rate. Read here
8. Consumer prices slid -0.4% in April which was the sharpest decline in more than four years, due to a drop in gasoline costs Read here
9. Philly Fed Index fell to -5.2 vs 1.3 in the prior month. The Street was expecting a reading of 2.4. Read here
10. Japan said its economy topped estimates in Q1 but said deflation remains a concern. Read here
11. THE METS SUCK!
Chart of The Day: Physical Demand For Gold Plunges
Written By: Garyk
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May•
17•13
Gold Demand In One Chart: Physical vs ETF:
China’s demand for gold jumped 20% to 294 tonnes in the first quarter of 2013, while global gold demand overall slid 13% thanks to the dramatic rotation of demand from paper to physical. Chinese demand in gold bars and coins grew to 109.5 tonnes – more than double the five-year quarterly average of 43.8 tonnes. Central banks added 109.2 tonnes of gold to their reserves in Q1 2013, the ninth consecutive quarter of net purchases. But it was the Q1 ETF outflows of 176.9 tonnes, equating to a 7% decline in total gold ETF holdings that obscured the strong rise in investment for gold bars and coins at the retail level. In the face of the huge ‘paper’ gold ETF outflows, ‘physical’ gold demand surged to its highest in 18 months…
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/gold-demand-one-chart-physical-vs-etf
Chart Of The Day: Housing Starts Plunge 16.5% in April!
Written By: Garyk
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May•
16•13
Housing Starts Plunge 16.5% in April!
The Commerce Department said that starts at building sites for homes plunged -16.5 percent last month to a 853,000-unit annual rate. That was below analysts’ expectations of a 945,000-unit rate.
Definition:
A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.
Why Investors Care:
Two words…Ripple Effect. This narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as housing starts, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Source: Bloomberg,
Chart of the Day: Massive Disconnect Between Stocks & Metals Prices
Written By: Garyk
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May•
15•13
This disconnect is certainly one of the more remarkable features of the risk-on rally since 2011.
Here’s an illustration from Julian Jessop at Capital Economics via FT Alphaville:
Source: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/05/14/chart-o-the-day-the-stocks-commodities-disconnect/
It seems as though this makes no sense at all - shouldn’t commodities be benefiting from the same easy money policies as stocks are? - but the explanation can be found, according to Jessop and FT’s Paul Murphy, in the weakness of China:
The moves are logical. Stocks are up because of rampant QE, which is squeezing investor flows out of bond markets and into equities. And the reason we’ve got rampant QE is the continued lack of near-term economic recovery globally, which is manifestly bad for industrial commodities.
Jessop notes that industrial metals are particularly sensitive to Chinese growth prospects and it seems noteworthy that Shanghai is one stock market that is not rising at present…
Chart of The Day: Percent of Student Loan Balance 90+ Days Delinquent State-by-State
Written By: Garyk
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May•
14•13
Curious how the student loan bubble, just shy of $1 trillion, and now the largest debt portion of the US household non-mortgage wallet, bigger than credit card and auto loan debt – affects your state? Then the following three charts just out from the NY Fed are for you.
What the data shows is that less than 12% of the population in Hawaii has student loans, while the record is in D.C. at over 25%. All those “students” in the nation’s capital. Really?
But that’s not all. While the average loan balance is under $21,000 in Wyoming, it is once again highest in D.C., with the average loan balance over $40,000. It is almost as if D.C. “students” have learnedhow to game the system.
Full Story here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-14/us-student-loan-bubble-broken-down-state-and-why-washington-dc-stands-out-sore-thumb
Chart Of The Day: Apple Buying Back Shares will Boost EPS and Save AAPL $1.5B a year in dividends
Written By: Garyk
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May•
13•13
FORTUNE — By the time it decided in April to increase its stock buyback program five fold — from $10 billion to $60 billion — Apple (AAPL) already spent $1.95 billion of the original $10 billion fund and had bought and retired nearly 4.1 million shares of Apple common stock. Average share price, according to the company’s latest Form 10-Q: $478.20.
Source: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/13/apple-share-buyback-leitao/
Good & Bad For The Week
Written By: Garyk
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May•
11•13
Good:
1. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its benchmark cash rate at its monthly meeting overnight, shaving a further quarter-point off yields to 2.75%. Read here
2.German factory orders beat estimates in March. Read here
3. Chinese exports and imports grew more than expected in April Read here
4. U.S. consumer credit rose by $8.0 billion in March which was down an upwardly revised $18.6 billion
5. South Korea’s Central Bank unexpectedly cut rates
6. U.S. Weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 323,000 which was the lowest level since 2008 Read here
7. Earnings are on track to rise 5.2% vs Q1 2012 Read here.
Bad:
1. Euro-area services and manufacturing output shrank for a 15th consecutive month in April. Read here
2. European Retail sales fell for a second month in March. Read here
3. Industrial production in France fell -0.9% on the month and three-times as fast as was anticipated. Production was lower by 2.5% compared to one year ago. Read here
4. China’s CPI jumped 4% last month. This sparked inflation woes and put pressure on Beijing to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. Read here
5. Aussie Dollar Plunges below important support. Could spark more currency wars.
