JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Let’s back track a little and look at what happened going into this new year.
The market looked like it was going to go higher in late-December. And then all the news of the Fiscal Cliff started bringing it down and it looked like it was bringing it down hard.
Then Monday, in the middle of New Year’s Eve Day, it was basically announced that a deal would get done on the Fiscal Cliff. And the market ramped into the close.
And you never know what was going to happen, but then they announced WAS done. And so the market gapped up very big on Wednesday, January 2nd. Since then we’ve drifted a little higher with a little bit of pullback today.
I must tell you though, it really wasn’t that bad. In fact, there was some decent action in some stocks today. Keep in mind earnings start to come out in droves over the next couple weeks. And then we get to deal again with this…Debt Ceiling, which I’m going to try and stay mum on until we get a little bit closer.
Gold and Silver remain under serious pressure. I must tell you I spent some time on the charts focusing on 1977 when Gold went through the Bear market before it started is final move into a climatic run. So far it continues to trace it out. But there is nothing to do with Gold and Silver right now. Amazingly, I have to continue to tell you that the underlying Gold Mining stocks continue to act like a horror show. Nothing is going on there whatsoever.
Otherwise, Banks were most mostly red on the day, but may I say – modestly. And interestingly enough, a few of the banks were upgraded today and they couldn’t rally. But that’s because they’re sticking up in the air right now. They had a good move and I think they need to rest a little bit as they head into earnings.
Oils were modestly weak…but a few more weak than others.
Housing looked to be strong for the most part. Lennar looks like it’s edging out into new high ground. Ryland’s trying to at this point in time.
Metals and Mining is on the stronger side, but nothing thrilling.
Weakness remains, in the Retail. Just nothing going on there in spite of what the market’s done over the past week or so. In fact, a bunch of Retail stocks are in the midst of breaking down, while all this is going on. That;s something we’re going to be watching closely. Names like Walmart, Kohls, Target (though it’s bouncing a little), The Gap, The Limited, Macys, American Eagle Outfitters, Autozone…I can’t come up with anything good just yet. Now typically, if we’re really having a bullish phase, they’ll start to join in. It did not happen today.
Weakness in insurance stocks.
Mild weakness in Semiconductors, though Cree was wacked on a big downgrade today.
Some Biotech looks to be on the decent side today. Celgene looks like it was breaking out on some news today. Gilead is trying to move out of range. Regeneron looks to be setting up a little bit hear.
European markets were down for a change.
Asian markets were down for a change. Japan that has gone straight up. They’re printing and they’re the squashing the Yen. The Yen finally bounced a little bit.
Today was not a bearish day, with the Dow down 51 and the S&P down almost 5. I thought it was an okay day. The market does need to sit. In fact, I want to see something in 70 or 80 range. When you look at the major indices, everything is trading above the 50-day moving average and that is good news.
I would love to see the market sit for a couple weeks in here, if not pull back some. But I don’t know if we’re going see that because, we had two-year breakouts, i.e. things like the NYSE, which was down 4 tenths of a percent today. While the Transports didn’t break to new highs, it broke to relative highs.
Basically, this is all good news right now, as long as it sticks. Just remember: Breakouts can fail. Breakdowns can fail. In this case, I’m not in that camp. But we’re in such news-driven environment right now, that you just never know.
And we’re heading toward the Debt Ceiling and I’m going to do my best not to yap about it for now.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.