JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Our job is look at the market each day and identify the major trend. There are times when there isn’t any major trend and the market just futzes around, basically getting everybody upset, both and bull and bear.
And we’re in what I would call one of those times.
We topped out on November 16. The market put in a low. We rallied up to very important resistance areas. And so far, I wouldn’t say the market has failed. I would just say that the market hits some resistance areas and was repelled. The market sold it off. But nominally. Not the end of the world.
But for sure, my overall take is that we have a very, very split tape. You better be on the right side of things.
My take? I’m going to say about 35% of everything is shape. That doesn’t mean it’s going up. It’s just in shape.
35% is not in shape. How do I define something not in shape?
- It’s trading below the 10-week/50-day moving average.
- Every rally into that moving average subsequently gets sold.
- Volume patterns…negative, meaning: Up days have lighter volume and down days have bigger volume.
- When they go into resistance, they sell off hard.
- When they try to rally…eh…nominal.
- Stair steps to the downside.
We’re seeing this in a lot of the market and that’s why the market can’t get going.
Can that change? Absolutely, it can change. It can change for the better.
I got news for you, it can’t change just yet. A lot would have to occur for things to really get better.
Why? I can go through a litany of stock that are important that are not acting very well.
I can go through a litany of sectors that are not acting well.
And then there’s the major indices.
So I’ve this sneaking suspicion that we’re going to be sitting in the mud for the rest of the year, into December. Which means we can rally up more.
Do you get where I’m coming from? At this point in time, I’m kinda sorta agnostic as to what near-term moves are. I can give a case today that we’re going to rally up some more. I can give a case that the market can just crack.
Today was a non-eventful day for the most part.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.