JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving. Now I have to tell you that I’ve never gone shopping on Black Friday. I never will. I have never lined up to go shopping. I’ve seen people lining up two days in advance. I don’t know. I’ve been rich, I’ve been poor. I’ve been in between. I’ll not line up to go shopping. But I have to tell you, to be honest I’ve never checked the deals. There were some darn good deals to be had out there.
And then I go on the web and look at people fighting over phones. And one guy pulling a gun because somebody cut in line.
Go look at some of the videos. People are insane. They’re running over each other.
Keep in mind that with retail, I believe 30% of all revenues are around now…I think around 80% to 90% of profits…
Don’t believe the talk, that a day after Black Friday, everything’s fabulous. They tried to pull that last year and it wasn’t that great. And just remember, they don’t know whether it’s credit card or real money. There’s a lot that goes into it. We will get a feel for who won and who didn’t as far as how much was sold at certain places.
But when it comes to stocks, it’s not just what’s sold or how much is sold, it’s how much they made on it which matters the most. It all comes down to earnings when all is usually said and done. So be careful about this. There’s a lot of noise right now.
In the news…
You know for a big Friday in the market, there’s not a lot of news going on. But a few things:
- Did you know that auto lending is back in a big way? And subprime auto lending is going gang busters. That’s people that may or may not be able to afford it. So they pay a little higher rate and they have to put a little more money down. And frankly, I’m not genius enough to know, except the last time we saw a lot of subprime loans, I believe it was the taxpayer that ate them…and continues to eat them.
- I am getting tons of spam. I am getting a lot of potential viruses. Don’t open anything that you’re not sure of. There is a ton. They are coming after you. They’re coming after me. I had to bring this up because I almost opened one by accident. And just so you know, I got one that said American Express. I have an American Express card. And the email wasn’t from American Express. Most of these companies will not ask for you info. You need to know that. They will not do things over the web. You need to know that. Don’t get caught.
- In case you don’t know, nothing’s really changed in Europe, except they announced the printing of money to bonds to lower yields and they’re getting away with it, just like they’re getting away with it here – for now. And yields have come down in Spain and Italy and these other places and that’s helped things out. I call it the gigantic cover-up. Let’s hope, as they say, that the genie doesn’t get out of the bottle (at least the bad genie).
- Read about the big insider trading thing going on. They’re trying to go after Steve Cohen of SAC Capital because a couple people who worked there have been found guilty or admitted it, but so far nothing on him. I gotta tell…hopefully he didn’t do anything wrong because the guy is worth billions. I’m just amazed that one guy Raj Rajaratnam, who’s now going to jail, is worth hundreds of millions of dollars and still committed insider trading. And he’s out of the business for life. I’m thinking to myself, if I had a $100 million in the bank, I don’t need a 100 more. Who knows what’s in these peoples’ minds?
The big story is we came into this week thinking pretty sure we were going bounce some. And you don’t know whether it’s playable or not. But I got tell you, if feels like the sellers are just gone. And buyers are able to bid things up. And the bounce has gone farther than I thought it would be able to go.
And as I said to you, “a low” has been put into place, probably for the rest of the year. But I had this thought process that we’re going to do some wide and loose action…up, down and all around – maybe that starts next week and we start heading down again.
What I’m going to need though – I need big leadership showing up. And I can tell you right now, I’ve got 3 or 4 names and that’s it.
If more things show up, I’ll be all over them. If the worst over and we resume the bull, they will show up.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.