JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
The market simply is in no man’s land right now. It’s a place where the market’s gotten hit. But interestingly enough, I’m going to take a short-term view of today’s action in with the rest of the view. Because out of the short-term action, you can actually get a feel for the what the market’s doing. Even on one day. Because markets do have patterns during the day. And bull markets have certain types of daily patterns as well as bear markets.
Of note today…weakness in Financials. Not good to see. Weakness in Gold and Silver and Gold and Silver stocks. Weakness in everything Commodities. That’s oils for the most part. The metals, mining, copper, aluminum, steel…coal, construction, fertilizers…things like that.
Semiconductors – weak.
Not much I can I can take out of today’s action except that we’re kinda sort in “No Man’s Land.” It’s a place where we can bounce a little bit or we can just continue lower. There’s really no feel to it.
Again, very important. All major indices are trading below their 200-day moving averages and that’s gotta change, ladies and gentlemen. For me, you’re in a bear market when you’re trading below the 200-day. I don’t need the 20%. Now the S&P is just slightly below the 200-day. The Dow, the Russell, the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq-100 are nicely below the 200-day.
That’s really not good news.
So Futures were down pretty nicely today. And then the immediately the market basically stepped up and got defended. If you look at the intraday you will see that at 9:30a, we had dropped down to 12,749, down about 66 points. At the time, the Nasdaq was down about 26. And just like a cannon, within minutes, the Nasdaq went from 2877 to 2902, up 25 points. And then a few minutes later, it was 2909. So I just think the Nasdaq was actually up 7 at one time today, which is no great shakes. But the Dow had a type of rally to where, at 11:10a, it hit 12898, 141 points higher than the actual close, which is 141 – 57…about 84 points. And the rest of the day we fussed around. But late in the day, we sold off harshly, finishing basically at the close at the lows, not in the morning, but just about.
Just letting you know on an intraday basis, that action needs to change. You do not want to have weak closes. It is a sign of a bearish phase. You do not want to have a market where you’re up nicely and you finish weak. It just tells you that the market is in weak hands. Just another distribution day in the market. A new relative low in the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq-100.
And when you’re stretched and oversold, as we are right now, the fact that we could only rally for a matter of hours before we sold off, is something to really have in your mind. That has to change.
It could change tomorrow. But let’s get some evidence first.
So we remain in a correction. We remain in a bearish phase of unknown time and unknown price. We let the market do its bidding. Simple as that.
I have already outlined for you all the things that have happened in recent weeks. All the blow-ups, and the breakdowns of short-, intermediate- and long-term moving averages. Reactions of supposed good news have been bad. Reactions to bad news have been worse.
And all that has got to change. And it didn’t happen today.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.