Yesterday, I told you that I thought market was going to head higher in the near term. I saw several things. I saw that support held at the bottom of the wedge. I saw that the all-important Semiconductor index was getting the bid and saw Retail also perk up. In case you didn’t know, I put a ton of weight on the action in the Semis at all times as they have been leading markets up and down for ages. The group is doing it again.
I would also add now that the Transports also looked to have carved out a low…and a quick glance at every major index shows they have held recent lows for the past 5 weeks. So…maybe, just maybe a good low is in. Only time will tell. I am not that smart. I just think the market is getting defended in here.
Other things I am noticing:
Strategists are now finally lowering their targets for the end of the year. This is actually good news.
The Sox is back above the 50 day. This is where the Sox has failed for the past few months so it bears watching.
The German Dax finally had a good day. As I have told you, the Dax is the one foreign market I follow most as it has also led both up and down.
Do notice that not once did I say THE low. Bear markets do go through a series of ups and downs. There are plenty of rallies during a bear. I am just hoping that after an 18-24% drop in the major indices that the market has said it had had enough. It is too early to tell…but near-term, I like what I am seeing. Of course…do not blink!
Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.