JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
This was a news-driven week. I wish the markets were driven by news other than Central Bank movements. But we work with the hand we are given and we do the best that we possibly can.
This week the Fed all but telegraphed more printing of money in the coming week.
You had a week of the Democratic Convention. I did not watch a watch a minute of it.
You had the head of the European Central Bank go to the University of Bernanke and he says we’re going to do unlimited bond buying. In other words – print money to buy bonds just like Bernanke did. That lifted European markets out of their malaise. That lifted Asian markets out of their malaise. And all the commodity areas that were basically dead, popped up hard. It got the financials moving again. And that helped the market breakout yesterday into new high ground…at least some of the major indices.
Today, we had the employment number. Of course, we don’t call it the employment number here. We’re smart. It’s the fake employment number. And we’ve told you what they’re good at. Government and their statistics is just a load of fraud. So today – somehow – jobs created were a joke…much less than expected. But somehow the unemployment rate dropped from 8.3% to 8.1%. And yet I have heard people on TV saying – Wow! That’s great!
These people are buffoons. Why?
Because arbitrarily again 368,000 people were taking out of the workforce, just in the past month. That’s 12,000 people a day who left the workforce, supposedly.
If you don’t use any of those numbers, we would have been at 8.4%.
So I emailed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS…which really—their name is now the BS) and asked them, ”Can you send me the list of those 368,000 people that left the workforce in order to make the unemployment rate go down to 8.1%.”
I haven’t gotten an answer. In fact, I’ve emailed them several times over the past few months and I’ve never gotten an answer.
There is no list. They make it up.
And would any of you like to wager what happens next time. I can. I say we do down to 7.9% for the election. “You see, we’re under 8.0%, so vote for me.”
It’s a scam. I don’t trust these numbers.
You know what the unemployment rate is?
Go speak to all your friends and relatives.
Go speak to all the 50 and 60 year olds that lost jobs and can’t find jobs.
Go speak to young African American that cannot find jobs.
Go speak to people coming out of college that can’t find jobs.
50% of people coming out law school cannot find jobs.
But yet the unemployment rate’s coming down.
Look this at this nice little chart.
The chart is labor force participation. And I have a simple question. Why is it that, since 2009, if the economy has gotten so much better, that labor force participation has crashed…to the point where if still have the same labor force participation as the beginning 2009, we’d be at 11.2% unemployment right now?
I want that list. Give the list of the millions of people. Again, there isn’t any. It’s about as cockamamie as cockamamie can be.
But here’s what happened. The market recognized how bad this report was, even with some buffoon saying it was good…
- The dollar sank
- The Euro soared
- Commodities went up big
- Gold and silver went up big
…because you know what they know now? The Fed on Tuesday will announce something. And frankly I have no idea what they’re going to announce, but it’s probably going to be in the range of half a trillion to a trillion dollars worth of bond buying.
And by the way, they have no money really. They say they do, but don’t really have anything.
So big day today even though the major indices did not have a big day.
Big day for the commodities. And by the way, China announced a tremendous infrastructure spending plan and that was part of the commodity move also.
Gold and Silver
As you know, we have this thesis here that end of the gold boom is going to be a monstrous climactic run akin to the move that happened from 1977 to 1980. The thought process was that we probably had a few more months of a bearish phase and that we’d possibly break that 148 on the GLD. Why? More money printing.
I’m of the thought process that that could be the low. And if that is and the market follows what they did at the end of the 70s, this could be a big move up…based on this continuous money printing festival that is now being joined by the people in Europe.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.