JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Today I put up a video of Jeremey Grantham being interviewed by Maria Bartiromo. Somebody sent it to me about two years ago, but I never watched it until today.
If there’s anybody I agree with 100%, it is this man. So I put up the 29 minute interview at GaryK.com.
But let me be clear. You’ll be thinking that you’re listening to me. He talks about the Fed and bubbles and the outcomes of bubbles and all that stuff.
I want to make sure you know that the market is riding the Euro vs. the Dollar right now. Go look at an intraday chart. As the Euro moved, the market moved. And vice versa. Now I’m not sure how long that lasts. But the thought process is that if the Fed continues to print money, it’ll weaken the dollar, which will help asset prices and some of the commodity names in the commodity areas – which got a little bid in last few days.
Now that said, let me give you the good news. The price of oil was whacked again today. $81/barrel, down like $3 and change today. That is great news as we enter more into the summer months for the price at the pump. Of course the price always goes down slower than it goes up.
- But I’m just letting you know that that’s going to
- Help airline profits,
- Cut expenses for the average American, as well as business.
For me, nothing bad happens if oil prices keep coming down. I just want to know when they’re doing to do the investigation on the “speculators” who are making it go down. Those are the same speculators that were supposed to be investigated a couple months back when prices were heading skyward. Oh, that’s right – that fits the template, so no investigation on those speculators.
Anyway, we’re in an uptrend, though I might say today they pulled in a lot of leading names, which for me is good. Some of them got extended. Nothing really stands out for me today.
Most leaders were down today. I’d just would say normal pullbacks. The only bad action is Bed Bath and Beyond after the close.
We will watch how these things act as they pull into support or moving averages.
Remember that the 10-week/50-day moving average is a constant in the market. In bullish phases it contains the pullbacks. In bearish phases, it contains the bounces from going higher.
The Commodities bounced up a little bit. I believe they’re still in a bear market. I can’t say they can’t bounce any farther, but in relation to everything else, they’re almost dead in the water. I would still underweight those areas.
Gold was down today. I do not think Gold is in a new intermediate bull market, even though many of emailed me and said, “Look what it’s done off its lows.” That’s all it’s done. It’s bounced off its lows. For me, that means absolutely nothing to me right now. I wouldn’t underweight Gold and I would not be doing any new buying of Gold. But I think Gold is, longer-term, in a big bull market and once it gets out of whatever its in right now, I expect it to mimic the 1978 to 1980 period where it had a monstrous climatic run, which was the final move in the bull market for Gold back then.
To finish up, the Dow, the S&P, the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq-100, the Russell 2000, the NYSE have all now come up to or a smidge above the decline 50-day moving average. Markets are overbought here. I would love to see a little backing and filling for the next week or so.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.